ECOSYSTEM SERVICES MAPS and FUTURE TRAJECTORIES

Within GUARDEN an integrated approach toward defining the future trajectories of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) was designed to assess and visualize the current and potential future states of biodiversity and ES. The outputs integrate diverse data sources of biodiversity, habitats, natural and cultural heritage, agricultural production, infrastructure development, and green energy to develop spatially explicit models that depict ES supply, as well as their trade-offs, and synergies. It enables policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of different land-use and environmental management decisions under various scenarios.

The methodological framework utilizes Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and InVEST® models to support real-life decisions of local stakeholders and produce outputs that are relevant to their needs and priorities under different scenarios. These scenarios help decision-makers identify optimal strategies to balance biodiversity conservation and economic growth. The produced ES maps are visualized through a WMS, providing maps and scenario comparison options. It is particularly useful in assessing conflicts and synergies in biodiversity conservation, infrastructure development, renewable energy expansion, and industrial growth. By incorporating stakeholder engagement, the framework ensures that the ES assessments and their outputs align with real-world priorities, enhancing their applicability in decision-making processes​.